One has to wonder at the potential effect of Bin Ladin's message on the election.
First, it could be beneficial for Bush. The country knows this guy is still out there, and still somewhat of a menace. They might be able to pick up the somewhat defeatist tone in Bin Ladin's message. They guy is no longer talking about destroying us. He's talking about leaving us alone if he leave him alone. That sounds like a guy who's basically had about all he can take.
Second, it could be beneficial for Kerry. He'll say Bush wasn't able to nail this guy. He'll use all the Democratic talking points that Bin Ladin brings up in the clip, including how Bush's inaction after the first plane hit the towers allowed the other aircraft to reach their destinations. Anyone else get the impression Terry Mcauliffe drafted this thing for Bin Ladin?
Of course, Walter Cronkite says that Karl Rove put Bin Ladin up to this message. No really, he did.
The old guy has lost whatever shred of credibility and sanity he had left.
At any rate, there is no way to predict what the UBL video will do to the election. We shall have to wait until Tuesday to see.